24/02/2011

Morning Report: Markets rollover, money floods into safe havens

Morning Report: 08.30 London

• This morning Middle East & North Africa tensions are escalating with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia attempting to head off a popular unrest with a financial package for workers. With Brent crude oil prices rocketing to $117 and WTI crude hitting $100, traders are clearly spooked and betting on things getting worse before they get better.


Traders are putting their money into the safe haven currencies of the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and gold.

The USD/CHF has made record new lows and is currently trading at 0.9270, down 0.60%. The EUR/CHF has smashed through support to trade down 0.82%.

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The yen is the currency in demand this morning though with the USD/JPY down 0.75% and other pairs such as the GBP/JPY down 1.10%.

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Coming up today:

• Stock market futures have rolled over. They were pointing to a flat open, but we're looking at another significant sell off again this morning now on the FTSE 100 and other European markets.


Coming up today:

• With geopolitical events unpredictable right now, planned economic announcement could take a back seat to breaking news throughout the day.

• Today's top planned economic news items include USD core durable goods orders at 13.30 with unemployment claims released at the same time.

• US new home sales follow at 15.00 with a slight increase expected.


Bet Idea: Swiss franc

• The USD/CHF is hitting record low levels as tensions rise, but with today's trading range still lower than yesterday's there are hints of more downside to come. On the other hand, any rebound could be aggressive so an IN/OUT trade could be the best way to play this situation today.

An IN/OUT trade predicting that the USD/CHF will close outside of 0.9175 or 0.9350 in 4 days time (Feb 28th) could return 128% if successful.



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Summary:

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